service worker, empty nester, older, rural counties. and those folks have surged to romney. guess where they're located? io iowa, minnesota, michigan, ohio, pennsylvania, upper state new york. and that's why these states are closing and closing in terms of why we're seeing margins moving towards romney. >> very quickly, bill, fred, do either -- what are the odds of a split decision, popular vote/electoral college? bill, what do you put it at? >> a one in four chance. national votes tend to spill over to the electoral college. >> i am the same category. and, by the way, when you look at individual battleground states, you have to given the advantage to president obama. >> fred yang and bill mcinturff we need you tomorrow night. our super panel will be here next. with tempers flaring in florida and elsewhere, are we heading for another cliffhanger? but first the white house soup of the day, greek lentil stew.